Thursday, July 24, 2008
Can Vs. Should (part 1)
In my introductory post I mentioned that as a part of the product development process I often not only ask myself whether or not we at Tyndale can produce a Bible but also whether or not we should produce that same Bible.
To be honest my initial thinking was about the relative merits of a given Bible. I mean, let's face it, it is not very far down the road for us to get to Mark Buchanan's "left-handed bald gypsy fiddler's Bible" (complete with holographic maps of the temple if I recall properly. See page 200 of Your God is Too Safe) if we are not diligent. But as ElShaddai Edwards asked in the comments section with specific reference to this can/should issue, there is another side, namely market opportunity.
I have to say that I understand why the very phrase "market opportunity" in conjunction with Bibles can and does raise red flags for people. This is not unique to Bibles, and at its most basic level it is the issue of business versus ministry. This is an issue that anyone involved with Christian prducts -retailers, publishers, authors, etc. - all struggle with at some point or another. Ministry is the motivator, but the business has to be sound. This often sets up serious dilemmas which I struggled with as a book and music buyer and I also struggle with now. I have been called jokingly called a "purist" around the office and I take that as a compliment. The reality is, however, if the business end doesn't work the ministry can't happen. It seems a bit crass I know, but that's the reality we face as publishers.
Take the issue of a wide margin, single column Bible for instance. I get requests from a couple of sources for this one. Mostly these requests are from people in the blogosphere who are passionate and vocal. Frankly, I totally agree with those of you requesting this edition. I want one myself. Preferably in a really nice genuine leather edition. One that I could take notes in and someday give to one of my kids. Here is where the can vs. should issue gets tricky because it is the opposite of the way that I tend to think about it.
The problem is that the economics on a project like this have made it very difficult to create. The Notemaker's Bible in the first edition of the NLT was exactly the kind of product that we are talking about. It was developed before I came to Tyndale , but from all the reviews I have seen, the team's efforts to get it right paid off. But there was a problem. Big one. It sat on store shelves. And sat. To be fair there could be a lot of reasons for this. Maybe our price was wrong, maybe the cover or the title were just a bit off. Maybe the timing was just wrong. I'm honestly not sure.
The issue here is not one of whether or not the product is worthy, but whether or not it's viable. There's a lot that goes into the creation of a Bible. Things like the time and money invested in design, typesetting, proofreading, manufacturing, warehousing, freight (and yes that one keeps going up), how long the print run will be, which market segment is likely to stock that kind of a Bible, what the returns rate and average discount that channel receives and a whole lot of other issues as well, things like whether or not "the market" will support the product (i.e., is there a sufficient demand).
It's a complex business to publish a Bible with a lot of variables and a lot of difficult decisions to be made. Print runs are a great example. Increase the print run and the cost of goods per unit goes down. This means it's easier for us to be competitive in retail and sale pricing. It's also a huge risk because you can sit on a lot of inventory for a long time if the product doesn't work. And those are dollars that you can't put into other projects. Which means that not only does the business potentially suffer, but so does ministry because opportunities may not be able to be pursued.
So here's my question:
How would you strike the balance between "can vs. should"? What would that look like if you were the one developing Bibles?
To be honest my initial thinking was about the relative merits of a given Bible. I mean, let's face it, it is not very far down the road for us to get to Mark Buchanan's "left-handed bald gypsy fiddler's Bible" (complete with holographic maps of the temple if I recall properly. See page 200 of Your God is Too Safe) if we are not diligent. But as ElShaddai Edwards asked in the comments section with specific reference to this can/should issue, there is another side, namely market opportunity.
I have to say that I understand why the very phrase "market opportunity" in conjunction with Bibles can and does raise red flags for people. This is not unique to Bibles, and at its most basic level it is the issue of business versus ministry. This is an issue that anyone involved with Christian prducts -retailers, publishers, authors, etc. - all struggle with at some point or another. Ministry is the motivator, but the business has to be sound. This often sets up serious dilemmas which I struggled with as a book and music buyer and I also struggle with now. I have been called jokingly called a "purist" around the office and I take that as a compliment. The reality is, however, if the business end doesn't work the ministry can't happen. It seems a bit crass I know, but that's the reality we face as publishers.
Take the issue of a wide margin, single column Bible for instance. I get requests from a couple of sources for this one. Mostly these requests are from people in the blogosphere who are passionate and vocal. Frankly, I totally agree with those of you requesting this edition. I want one myself. Preferably in a really nice genuine leather edition. One that I could take notes in and someday give to one of my kids. Here is where the can vs. should issue gets tricky because it is the opposite of the way that I tend to think about it.
The problem is that the economics on a project like this have made it very difficult to create. The Notemaker's Bible in the first edition of the NLT was exactly the kind of product that we are talking about. It was developed before I came to Tyndale , but from all the reviews I have seen, the team's efforts to get it right paid off. But there was a problem. Big one. It sat on store shelves. And sat. To be fair there could be a lot of reasons for this. Maybe our price was wrong, maybe the cover or the title were just a bit off. Maybe the timing was just wrong. I'm honestly not sure.
The issue here is not one of whether or not the product is worthy, but whether or not it's viable. There's a lot that goes into the creation of a Bible. Things like the time and money invested in design, typesetting, proofreading, manufacturing, warehousing, freight (and yes that one keeps going up), how long the print run will be, which market segment is likely to stock that kind of a Bible, what the returns rate and average discount that channel receives and a whole lot of other issues as well, things like whether or not "the market" will support the product (i.e., is there a sufficient demand).
It's a complex business to publish a Bible with a lot of variables and a lot of difficult decisions to be made. Print runs are a great example. Increase the print run and the cost of goods per unit goes down. This means it's easier for us to be competitive in retail and sale pricing. It's also a huge risk because you can sit on a lot of inventory for a long time if the product doesn't work. And those are dollars that you can't put into other projects. Which means that not only does the business potentially suffer, but so does ministry because opportunities may not be able to be pursued.
So here's my question:
How would you strike the balance between "can vs. should"? What would that look like if you were the one developing Bibles?
posted by Kevin O'Brien at 1:24 PM
I would like to suggest that sometimes it is worth it to a Bible publisher to produce a few specific Bibles geared to what I call "gatekeepers"--those that are the teachers, preachers and other ministers of the church that have a great influence upon what Bibles other church members purchase.
These are Bibles that can be used for teaching and preaching. They have a type size large enough that the reader can look away from the Bible, make eye contact with an audience, and come back to the Scriptures in one graceful movement without losing one's place. These Bibles may NOT be a publisher's greatest sellers. But here's the key: they lead to sells of other Bibles.
Yesterday, I carried the preview copy of the NLT Study Bible that Laura & Tyndale was kind enough to send me (thanks!) to church. Because of its wealth of content, I had plenty to distract me during our pastor's sermon (don't tell him), and I taught our Bible study class from it as well.
But I wouldn't want to teach from the NLTSB every week because for my purposes, it's not a teaching Bible (it may very well work as such for others, though). I need a Bible that I can use in settings where I teach (multiple times a week) and preach (occasionally). A year ago, I spent a great deal of time looking for an NLT for public use. You know, what? They're hard to find.
If I'm going to use the NLT in public more often, I need one I can carry with me. That's not a study Bible because these are too big for this purpose. The type size should be around ten points. A thinline/slimline is not necessary. I know these thin Bibles are popular, but the tradeoff is that text from underlying pages bleeds through and can be distracting. And don't even think about jotting your own notes in the margins of a thinline (if there even is a margin) because this bleeds through as well. The cover of a public use Bible, at least for those of us teaching adults, needs to be conservative. That doesn't mean it has to be black, but it shouldn't draw attention to itself. It can't be neon-colored. Something like a cross reference system can be helpful, but it's not essential. Most using a Bible for these purposes will agree that it should be black-letter throughout and not red-letter.
When I was looking for the kind of Bible I describe above, I finally settled on the NLT Premium Slimline. You can see my review of that here: http://tinyurl.com/64ly73
But the Premium Slimline, while it had a conservative cover, didn't meet most of the criteria I describe above. And its worst offense was that the text in the inner columns are SO close to the inner margin, that it has been mostly unusable for me in public contexts because anything in the inner column becomes too difficult to read aloud. Another issue is the red lettering. A Bible of the kind I'm describing here doesn't need red lettering at all, and the red lettering in the Premium Slimline is WAY too bright.
Now, this was an issue as well for Zondervan and the TNIV, but they finally released the TNIV Reference Bible. Tyndale needs something equivalent in the NLT. From my observation alone, it seems to me that when a new translation is released, publishers these days are very quick to market editions with wild attention-getting covers and very little emphasis placed on actual usability. I suppose there's this sense that if "young" people buy these Bibles, it will catch on.
But in a way, this can often be the tail wagging the dog. There's no reason why serious editions of Bibles for teaching and preaching cannot be released as well. What I'm not sure that publishers often realize these days is that if you get a well known pastor who is in front of hundreds, maybe thousands of church members each week to use your new translation, there can be a tremendous ripple effect among those who are under this individual's teaching. But the average pastor doesn't want to carry a neon pink Bible to the pulpit (or even camo!). And more importantly, that Bible needs to facilitate public reading with its type size and layout.
In regard to editions, it doesn't have to be an either/or; it can be a both/and.
One publisher who really does get this concept, regardless of what one feels about the ESV, is Crossway. They have the neon colors that appeal to young people, but they also offer a number of straight reference editions, and for what it's worth offer a number of wide margin editions. I'm certain that these editions don't sell as well as the pretty colored ones. But the people who are using the reference editions and the wide margin editions are influencing the purchases of others.
A few years ago, I was teaching from a NASB wide margin that had the margins filled with my own notes. I stopped using the NASB publicly, not because I no longer like the NASB, but because I became convicted that a straight formal equivalent translation did not communicate well in public. However, now that I'm using translations like the TNIV and NLT, it's a shame that I can't find a true replacement in either translation for my trusty old NASB wide margin.
As for the Notemaker's Bible, I think the timing was just wrong. Personally, I believe the layout for the Notemaker's Bible is best I've ever seen in any wide margin Bible. But perhaps it was ahead of its time.
Since the Notemaker's Bible, the NLT has gone through a major revision and another minor one. The time is ripe for the NLT to go beyond being that second or third translation, or that translation that helps me understand the other translation and become a version of the Bible for serious study and personal reflection, on an individual level, in groups, and from the podium. There's now a commentary set based on the NLT, there a new study Bible, there's the Tyndale-Strong's Numbering System that connects the NLT to hundreds of reference works. How great it would be now to sit down with a NLTse 2007 edition NoteMaker's Bible and work one's way through the Cornerstone Commentary series, taking notes in the margin of the NLT Bible!
Regardless, we need a good NLTse teaching/preaching/public use reference Bible, probably in a single-column text. And then the next step in my opinion would be to offer a wide margin edition of the same thing for those of us who like to study teach from a text with the notes culled from our study written in the margins. Again, these may not be the biggest sellers, but those who influence the sales of other editions will use them.
Great post Rick.
Thanks guys! Check out my review.
By the way, good stuff Rick.
Ditto Rick's Comments...
At a boy, Rick!
When I think of Bibles, I think of either "reading" Bibles or "study" Bibles. A "reading" Bible for the most part is just the Biblical text, with minimal notes. There isn't a lot to distract you on the page, so it's easier to just sit down and read for longer periods of time. I prefer that my "reading" Bibles be smaller and lightweight, so they travel easier. As for "study" Bibles, I expect that they are going to be big and fat and full of lots of extra information. My "study" Bibles do travel with me on occasion, but for the most they remain at my desk as a reference for when I'm doing a more in depth study of a certain book or passage. I feel that having a quality offering that fills these two niches is the way to go. Also, I relate to Kevin's paragraph referencing a "left-handed bald gypsy fiddler's Bible". I used to work at a Christian bookstore back in the day and we always joked that one day we'd see the "left-handed cross eyed bowler's devotional Bible. : )
Honesty I think the thing to do is take advantage of structural weaknesses in the marketplace.
For example it is very expensive to get bible software with a good quality commentary attached to it. You own the Cornerstone. You own the rights to (IMHO) the best literal NT translation around (Brown and Comfort).
Cornerstone + NLT + B&C + something for the OT you got yourself a powerful bible study CD. I've never seen your dictionary but that would be strong. You have the greek manuscripts set + Comfort's new book (NEW TESTAMENT TEXT AND TRANSLATION). Now you have a serious online offering. All centered around the NLT. Throw in 2 dozen other Tyndale books.
Now you have an online service. Make it free to any church that uses the NLT as its pew bible.
See if you can get a hardware vendor to bundle it. Dell for example does about 5m units a quarter in the home market. If we figure 1/2 that is US you are looking at $5m per quarter essentially free. Plus huge branding the the NLT.
Yeah I've got I want. I'd love a good OT interlinear from Tyndale. But I think right now there is a huge market for undercutting Logos with a more limited product at a much lower price point. And you have the resources in place to do it.
Rick hit it on the nail. A large number of your sales will be based on what a pastor or teacher uses. A single sale to Rick probably means an increase of several dozen sales of NLTs each year. Now, those additional sales most likely won't all be buying fancy leather or wide-margin editions (although some will), but they will be contributing to your bottom line.
Other points: I notice that many publishers are able to make a profit on sales even on small numbers of units if they charge a higher price.
The current used price of marked-up hardcover the Notemaker's Bible is $100 with "new" copies going for $124. (The cheapest price for bonded leather editions is in the $40 range.) This suggests to me that the audience for wide-margin Bibles is passionate and willing to tolerate higher prices.
If your market analysis indicates that sales of wide margin Bibles will be small, then why can't you arrange a small print run and charge a higher price?
Along these lines, you charge a premium price for your "Select" editions. Now, there are a number of formulae for taking Amazon sales ranking and estimating sales. Based on this, and what little I've heard from publishers about printing costs, I suspect that this is not your best selling Bible but that over the lifetime of the print run, you will make more than the marginal cost of producing this edition. If you can sell a specialist edition such as this, certainly you can sell a wide-margin Bible.
Finally, I notice that publishers such as Cambridge and Oxford seem to make money selling their wide margin Bibles (in the case of Cambridge, editions including the NKJV, ESV, NIV, as well as the KJV.) Since they are able to make money on wide-margin editions, maybe you could enter into a licensing agreement with them to produce a wide-margin for you?
The whole "can vs should" is hard for me concerning the NLT, frankly because of the short time from version 1.0 to 2.0. (for our church anyway) It discourages me from purchasing anything that's not electronic, especially something I might use to study with and take notes in. Too hard to transfer them over when version 2.736b comes along.
And I'm not some person who doesn't appreciate books. I have a couple thousand of them. But I have to be a good steward, and tossing the NLT 1.0 hurt. I got 15 years out of the NIV Study Bible.
I do agree wholeheartedly with the idea that putting a Bible in te hands of a key influencer drives sales. It just makes sense that the congregation will gradually move toward the same version.
I had no idea that the out of print Notemaker's Bible was fetching such a high price. When CBD ran them at ridiculously low prices, we bought up a half dozen or so in both burgundy and black as well as a couple of hardbacks. I know I've given away one of the leather ones, but it may be time to put our other stockpile on the market :-)
Thanks for the heads up, Iyov.
Well, I asked and you answered! Thanks for the input and keep it coming. There is a lot to digest there and I want to make sure that I answer well, so give me a day or two and I will respond to everything that I can.
In the meantime, for those of you looking for a public use Bible you may want to try the Large Print Personal Size - 12 point font, 5 1/2" X 8 1/4" trim size, about 1 1/2" thick.
Here's a link for the hardcover:
Large Print Personal Hardcover
Brian, your link to the Large Print Personal Hardcover reminds me of a suggestion I've wanted to offer for a long time in regard to the online NLT Bible catalog. When someone goes to the main NLT website and looks at the various Bible editions, all we can see are pictures of the front of boxes.
You know, especially, in regard to trying to find that right Bible for public use, I want to see page layout. I want to see an actual size sample of the type on the page. The current online catalog doesn't offer that and simply looking at the front of the packaging isn't all that helpful. If I had been able to actually see the layout of the NLT Premium Slimline, I wouldn't have spent my money on it because as I've suggested, the text of the inner columns are way too close to binding for use in teaching/preaching.
One more thing (and I hope you take all this as friendly constructive criticism from a supporter), in regard to the Bible you suggested for public use, a hardback is really not sufficient. Perhaps I should have said this instead of assuming it, and perhaps it even varies in different parts of the country... but I've been teaching adults for 20 years now. I've found that when I'm in front of people, a leather binding (or at least one that looks like leather) says to an audience that I have a Bible in hand. A hardback says to them that I have a book in hand.
I know that to you and me this might seem silly, but there's psychological merit to it. When I stand before others, I need to have a Bible that can balance in my hand Billy Graham-style, if you can picture that. It's a kind of unspoken requirement.
I would love to see a Bible avenue that may satisfy many individual tastes, and possibly help on cost outlay for the publisher. ( Note I say "may". I'm not well versed in publishing costs and procedures, so please don't flame me on this. It just seems to make sense) Anyway, I'd love to see an online a la carte type situation akin to what some other companies do to specialize their products (sneakers, clothing, etc.). The publisher could have a few basic text blocks pre made and available. Say compact, standard, reference, wide margin, for instance. The buyer would be given a base price for the text block, which they could buy and have covered themselves, or they could add "extras" from a specialization menu. Choose from various covers at various prices, choose to have extra note pages inserted in the front and / or back, maybe even things like the notes from the study edition as a supplemental paperback with both in a slip cover, whatever. The cost would be tied to whatever options the buyer wanted, no shipping is involved without an actual purchase, and no huge print runs need to be made of one particular variety, just enough to seed a choice menu. I think that there could be a significant number of buyers of any product (including Bibles) who would appreciate the opportunity to have a build-your-own option, and would be wiling to pay based upon their tastes and needs. Just my .02.
Rick, in regards to your last comment about the Large Print Personal Hardcover, I did a search at Christianbook Distributors online website using the Hardcover's ISBN and noticed it is also available in imitation and bonded leather formats. The site also has preview pages so you can check out the format if your interested.
Looks nice... I added it to my wishlist, lol. ;)
Sorry if this is considered to be spam. Just thought I'd give a heads up.
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